Gold is trading at approximately $5,192 per troy ounce as of 11 March 2026 — and, crucially, it has been holding above the $5,000 level for weeks. For context, gold crossed $3,000 for the first time in early 2025 and surpassed $4,000 in October of that year. The all-time high of $5,595, struck in January 2026, is now within touching distance again.
This is not a speculative spike. Gold’s sustained elevation reflects a convergence of powerful structural forces — central bank reserve strategy, accelerating de-dollarisation, geopolitical disruption, and a deepening global reassessment of paper currency risk. These forces have been building for years and show no meaningful sign of reversing.
For UK investors holding physical gold, or considering doing so, the implications are significant. This article sets out what is driving the current market, what the world’s leading institutional analysts are forecasting, and why the structure of your gold ownership matters more than ever.
What Is Driving the Price?
Central Bank Accumulation at Historic Scale
The single most important structural driver of gold’s sustained ascent is the deliberate, large-scale buying of physical gold by central banks worldwide. This is not reactive or short-term behaviour — it is a considered, multi-year strategy to reduce dependence on the US Dollar as the dominant global reserve asset.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks added 1,045 tonnes of gold to their reserves in 2024 — the third consecutive year in which annual purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes, far above the pre-2022 average of roughly 400–500 tonnes per year. In Q3 2025 alone, central banks bought 220 tonnes — around 28% higher than the previous quarter.
The breadth of buyers is as striking as the volume. While emerging market economies lead the charge, the trend spans the world. Poland’s central bank has now accumulated 543 tonnes, representing nearly 28% of its total reserves, as its governor has openly targeted raising gold to 30% of national holdings. India, Turkey, Brazil, China, and Kazakhstan have all been consistent buyers. As Morgan Stanley Research notes, gold now accounts for a larger share of central bank reserves than US Treasuries — for the first time since 1996.
De-Dollarisation: A Structural Shift in the Monetary Order
The driver behind much of this central bank buying is a deliberate strategic pivot away from US Dollar-denominated assets. Man Group’s analysis highlights that the war in Ukraine accelerated this trend sharply: when Russia’s dollar reserves were effectively frozen overnight, central banks worldwide drew a clear lesson about the risks of overreliance on any single sovereign currency.
As Amundi Research observes, gold’s rise signals the beginning of a gradual transition from a US-centric international monetary system towards a more multipolar one. Gold is the ideal reserve in such an environment — it has no counterparty risk, cannot be printed or sanctioned, and holds value independently of any nation’s economic policy.
The Middle East Crisis and Safe-Haven Demand
The past week has provided a sharp, live demonstration of gold’s safe-haven function. Following US and Israeli military action against Iran — and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — gold surged past $5,400, before easing back as President Trump signalled a desire for a quicker resolution to the conflict. As of 10–11 March, gold is holding around $5,192–$5,216, catching a bid from a combination of war premium, de-dollarisation concerns, and ongoing central bank and investor demand.
This episode illustrates a dynamic that has played out repeatedly throughout 2025 and 2026: short-term volatility within a structurally supported bull market. City Index analysts note that the January high of $5,595 is once again within reach if geopolitical tensions escalate further.
Broadening Investor Participation
For most of the gold bull run since 2022, central banks were the dominant buyer. That is changing. ING’s analysis reported that global gold demand hit 1,313 tonnes in Q3 2025 — the strongest quarterly total on record — driven by surging investment demand through ETFs, bars, and coins alongside central bank purchases. ETF investors alone added 222 tonnes in that quarter, the biggest quarterly inflow in years.
This broadening of the buyer base is highly significant. It means gold’s performance is no longer dependent on a single source of demand. Sovereign wealth funds, institutional asset managers, and private individuals across the world are reaching the same conclusion: gold deserves a meaningful, strategic place in a well-structured portfolio.
Where Prices Could Go From Here
Gold’s gains over the past 14 months have been exceptional — rising more than 60% from the start of 2025. The natural question is whether the structural case for continued ownership remains intact at current prices.
The institutional consensus is that it does. J.P. Morgan Global Research projects prices moving toward $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026 (a level already achieved), with $6,000 per ounce a longer-term possibility, underpinned by an expectation of approximately 585 tonnes of combined quarterly investor and central bank demand throughout the year. The World Gold Council’s 2026 outlook suggests gold could rise a further 5–15% from current levels in a scenario of slowing growth and continued rate cuts.
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook projects precious metals to reach fresh all-time highs in 2026, supported by continued safe-haven demand and official sector buying. Wells Fargo has set a target of $6,100–$6,300, with nearly 95% of central banks surveyed by the World Gold Council intending to increase their gold reserves this year.
These are not the projections of gold enthusiasts. They come from the world’s largest institutional research desks and are based on structural demand modelling, not market sentiment.
As always, short-term volatility is a feature of any market. The Middle East-driven swings of the past week are a reminder of that. But the longer-term architecture remains intact.
What This Means for UK Investors Specifically
Sterling Gains and the Currency Dimension
UK investors in physical gold benefit from an additional dynamic: currency movement. When sterling weakens against the dollar — as it typically does during periods of global risk aversion and geopolitical stress — the sterling price of gold rises faster than dollar-denominated headlines suggest. With gold currently above £3,800 per troy ounce (visible live on the RAX2 Assets homepage), UK investors have experienced returns in many cases exceeding the already-impressive dollar figures.
This means that physical gold serves a genuine dual function for UK investors: appreciation in global risk-off environments, and a direct hedge against sterling weakness — a consideration that remains relevant given ongoing uncertainties around UK fiscal policy and trade positioning.
The Tax-Efficiency Advantage That Cannot Be Overlooked
For UK investors, the strategic case for gold is only half the picture. The other half is how you hold it.
Gold Britannia and Gold Sovereign coins, produced by The Royal Mint, carry a status that no other form of gold investment can match: as British legal tender, profits realised from their sale are entirely exempt from Capital Gains Tax — regardless of the size of the gain.
With gold having risen more than 60% in 2025 alone, this exemption has moved from a theoretical advantage to a substantial, quantifiable financial benefit. An investor who purchased a Gold Britannia in early 2024 and sells today has made a gain that, in any other investable asset, would generate a significant CGT liability. In a Gold Britannia, that profit is entirely tax-free. There is no upper limit to this exemption — it scales directly with both the size of the position and the magnitude of the gain.
Liquidity When It Matters Most
Physical gold coins sourced from LBMA-approved mints — including The Royal Mint, PAMP Suisse, and Metalor — offer something that paper gold products cannot: genuine, tangible ownership combined with global liquidity. Gold Britannias and Sovereigns are among the most widely recognised and readily traded coins in the world. When you need to access your capital, they can be sold quickly, at competitive prices, and without dependency on the solvency of any third party.
This combination of tangibility, global liquidity, and tax efficiency is the foundation of the case for physical gold coins at RAX2 Assets.
Structuring Your Holdings Sensibly
For investors new to physical gold, or those reviewing their allocations in light of recent market performance, the practical questions are as important as the strategic ones.
How much should I hold? There is no universal answer, but consistent institutional guidance points to a 5–15% allocation to gold as a meaningful hedge within a diversified portfolio. In the current macroeconomic environment, many advisers are positioned at the higher end of that range.
Which products are most suitable? For UK investors, CGT-exempt coins — Gold Britannias and Gold Sovereigns — should form the core of any physical gold holding. They combine the tax advantages of British legal tender with the quality assurance of LBMA-approved minting.
Where should my gold be held? Physical gold can be held at home, in a bank safe deposit facility, or in a professional vaulting solution. RAX2 Assets offers fully insured, secure vaulting tailored to long-term ownership for clients who prefer not to manage storage personally.
Should I be concerned about buying at current levels? It is a natural concern, and one worth addressing directly. The evidence from 2025 is that gold can sustain and extend gains from levels that appeared elevated at the time. Investors who hesitated at $2,500, $3,000, and $4,000 have each been proven wrong in retrospect. Structural demand — not speculative momentum — is the primary driver of the current market. As the World Gold Council notes, even in a relatively benign economic scenario, continued central bank buying and new institutional entrants could support gold’s positive trend from current levels.
Final Thoughts
Gold’s sustained elevation above $5,000 per ounce is not the product of short-term speculation. It reflects a structural reallocation by the world’s most significant institutional buyers, amplified by geopolitical disruption — most recently in the Middle East — and a growing global recognition that traditional paper assets carry risks that physical gold simply does not.
For UK investors, the opportunity extends beyond participation in that price appreciation. It is to do so in the most tax-efficient, secure, and liquid form available: physical gold coins sourced from the world’s finest LBMA-approved mints, held in a structure that preserves and protects wealth for the long term.
At RAX2 Assets, our approach remains unchanged: personal, consultative, and grounded in the values of trust, integrity, and transparency. If you would like to discuss your gold strategy in light of the current market environment, our specialists are available for a confidential consultation at our Royal Tunbridge Wells office.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy gold?
No one can predict short-term price movements with certainty, and anyone who claims otherwise should be treated with scepticism. What we can say is that the structural drivers behind gold’s performance — sustained central bank buying, de-dollarisation, geopolitical instability, and inflation concerns — remain firmly in place as of March 2026. Metals Focus director Matthew Piggott has stated that with these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors likely to persist through 2026, there are no significant catalysts that would cause gold prices to decline meaningfully. Union Bancaire Privée For long-term wealth preservation, the entry point matters less than the structure of ownership and the quality of what you buy. Many investors also choose to spread purchases across two or three tranches rather than investing a lump sum, which reduces timing risk.
Are Gold Britannia and Gold Sovereign coins really exempt from Capital Gains Tax?
Yes. As British legal tender produced by The Royal Mint, both Gold Britannias and Gold Sovereigns are classified by HMRC as currency rather than chargeable assets. Profits realised from their sale are entirely exempt from Capital Gains Tax, regardless of the size of the gain. Carbon Credits This is distinct from gold bars and foreign bullion coins — such as the American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, or South African Krugerrand — which are treated as chargeable assets and subject to CGT on gains above the current annual exemption of £3,000. For UK investors, this CGT exemption is one of the most significant and often underappreciated advantages of holding coins over bars, particularly as gold prices have risen sharply.
Is physical gold exempt from VAT in the UK?
Yes. Investment-grade gold is exempt from VAT in the UK. To qualify, gold must meet HMRC’s definition of investment gold — coins must have been minted after 1800 and be, or have been, legal tender, and bars must have a minimum purity of .995. Carbon Credits All gold supplied by RAX2 Assets meets these criteria. Full details can be found in HMRC VAT Notice 701/21.
How much of my portfolio should I hold in gold?
Most financial advisers suggest holding 5–15% of your portfolio in gold and precious metals. Fortune The right figure depends on your individual circumstances — your risk tolerance, investment timeline, existing asset allocation, and views on the macroeconomic environment. Gold is typically used as a form of insurance and wealth preservation rather than a primary growth investment. In the current environment, many advisers are positioned at the higher end of that range. We recommend seeking independent financial advice tailored to your situation.
What is the difference between gold coins and gold bars for UK investors?
Both are forms of investment-grade physical gold, but they differ meaningfully in their tax treatment and liquidity. Gold Britannia and Sovereign coins are CGT-exempt and easier to sell in smaller amounts. Gold bars have lower manufacturing premiums for larger purchases but are subject to CGT on gains above the annual allowance. Fortune For most UK private investors, coins offer superior tax efficiency that outweighs the marginally higher premium, particularly when gold prices — and therefore potential gains — are at elevated levels.
Why are central banks buying so much gold?
Central banks have been accumulating gold at historic rates since 2022, driven by a strategic desire to reduce dependence on the US Dollar. NBP Governor Adam Glapinski of Poland has stated openly: “In these difficult times of global turmoil and the search for a new financial order, gold is the only safe investment for state reserves.” Yahoo Finance This reflects a broader shift among sovereign reserve managers worldwide. Gold holds no counterparty risk, cannot be sanctioned or frozen, and retains value independently of any single nation’s fiscal or monetary policy — qualities that have become increasingly important in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. You can follow the latest central bank gold data via the World Gold Council.
Where should I store my physical gold?
Physical gold can be stored at home (in a quality safe, with appropriate home insurance cover), in a bank safe deposit box, or in a professional allocated vaulting facility. Allocated and segregated storage is the only way to ensure your assets are legally yours and completely ring-fenced. ING THINK Unallocated storage — where your gold is pooled with that of other investors — carries counterparty risk and should be avoided. RAX2 Assets offers fully insured, allocated vaulting solutions for clients who prefer not to manage storage personally. Contact our team to discuss the option that best suits your needs.
Can I buy fractional gold coins?
Yes. Gold Britannias and Sovereigns are available in fractional sizes — including ½ oz, ¼ oz, and 1/10 oz Britannias, and the Gold Sovereign (which contains approximately 0.2354 troy ounces of fine gold). There has been a significant increase in sales of fractional gold coins, as smaller denominations offer a lower entry price point. Union Bancaire Privée All fractional Britannia and Sovereign coins retain the same CGT-exempt status as their full-ounce equivalents, as they are all Royal Mint legal tender. They also provide greater flexibility when it comes to selling, as you can liquidate part of your holding without selling everything at once. View our current range of gold coins.
How do I buy gold from RAX2 Assets?
Buying from RAX2 Assets is straightforward. You can browse our gold coin range online, or contact us directly for a personal consultation — particularly if you are investing a larger sum or want guidance on which products are best suited to your circumstances. Our team is based in Royal Tunbridge Wells and takes a personal, consultative approach to every enquiry. All bullion is sourced from LBMA-approved mints and refineries, including The Royal Mint, PAMP Suisse, and Metalor, and we offer fully insured delivery and vaulting solutions. Make an enquiry here.
